It's Snap Election Time!
Carney Faces His Own Head of Lettuce Challenge
Mark Carney could be one of our shortest serving Prime Ministers.
Currently, that dubious honor goes to Sir Charles Tupper, who lasted just 68 days before being ousted by Sir Wilfrid Laurier in 1900.1
I’m sure you’ve seen the reports that Carney is set to visit Governor General Mary Simon tomorrow to ask her to drop the writ.
WRIT / rit / • official legal document issued by the government, typically by the Governor General, that formally dissolves Parliament and triggers the start of an election. Basically, the government’s way of saying, “Game on!”
By law, the election period can be no shorter than 36 days and no more than 50 days; and it must fall on a Monday. That brings our first possible date for an election to be Monday, April 28th and the last possible date being Monday, May 12th.2
That would put Prime Minister Carney’s time tenure at 45 days by the first possible election date, and 59 days by the last possible date.
If he loses, don’t forget that number — it’ll likely come up at your next trivia night.
This post originally covered the 2025 snap election call — a real-world example of how Canada’s parliamentary system works in action. Even though the election is over, the insights here are evergreen for anyone wanting to understand elections, minority governments, and political strategy in Canada.
Not So Fast …
If this was just a few short months ago, almost everyone was telling us that the LPC losing was an inevitability. Polls showed that the Liberal Party of Canada faced a bleak outlook.
That’s not unusual for any government after a decade in power.
Historically, Canadian governments have faced apathy after prolonged periods in power.3 And while 10 years is a long time for any government, let’s not forget — it’s been a wild 10 years. Two Trump terms, a once-in-a-lifetime pandemic, and a whole lot of upheaval on the global stage. In that kind of environment, the hunger for change becomes even harder to ignore — especially when the incumbent party, like PMJT’s Liberals, has been through so much turmoil.
Enter the Carney Era
We all know how Carney took the reins from Trudeau in early March after winning the leadership race with an overwhelming majority, and since then, he’s hit the ground running. During the leadership campaign, he even mused calling an election before the fixed election date of Monday, October 20th 2025.
A fixed election is set by law to take place on a predetermined date, in this case, October 20, 2025. It’s the government's way of saying, "Mark your calendars, this election's happening on time."
Of course, given that this is a minority government, very few people thought that the Liberal government — no matter the leader — could actually make it to the fixed election date. As of today, they’ve been in power for 3 years, 6 months and 2 days4 — which is basically forever in minority government years.5
MINORITY GOVERNMENT / my-nor-uh-dee guv-er-mint / • A government formed when the ruling party holds fewer than half the seats in the legislature, meaning they need support from other parties to pass legislation and stay in power. Traditionally, much more vulnerable to votes of no confidence or coalitions with other parties. Think of it as walking a political tightrope, where every decision hinges on keeping everyone else happy — lest someone decide to push you off.
But why would PM Carney be calling an election so soon if he doesn’t need to?
Tick-Tock
PMJT asked for — and was granted — a prorogation of parliament back when he announced he would be stepping down. That is set to expire on Monday, March 24th. That means that parliament would be back in session this week — with all that that entails.
Because a prorogue closes a session of parliament, that means that a Speech From the Throne is necessary to open a new session.
SPEECH FROM THE THRONE / speech fruhm thuh thrown / • A formal address delivered by the Governor General (or a provincial Lieutenant Governor) outlining the government’s priorities and legislative agenda for the upcoming session of Parliament. It’s the government laying out their game plan for the session — what they want to get done and how they hope to pull it off.
But that’s a little tricky, this go — the Speech From the Throne comes with a built in no-confidence vote.
NO-CONFIDENCE VOTE / noh-kon-fi-duhns voht / • The ultimate political game of chicken. When the opposition parties decide they no longer trust the government, they call for a no-confidence vote. If the government loses, it’s game over, and an election is triggered. In a minority government, it’s basically the political equivalent of waiting for someone to yell 'surprise!' — except the surprise could be your political career ending.
In a minority government, that’s always a gamble; in this case, it’s a pretty bad one.
Opposition parties have been very clear that they’re ready to bring down the government at the first opportunity — and if parliament opens on Monday, that opportunity is being served to them on a gold platter.
So even if PMMC doesn’t call an election, odds are, one is calling him.
Why Carney’s Calling It Now
1. Control the Timing
With Parliament’s prorogation set to expire and the risk of an automatic no-confidence vote hanging over his government, calling an election allows Carney to control the timing.
He doesn’t want to let the opposition set the agenda. Why go into an election playing defence?
2. Set the Stage for a Clear Mandate
Carney didn’t exactly come into this role under normal circumstances; there’s some skepticism about his ability to lead a minority government. Calling an election now could give him a chance to lock in a clearer mandate, strengthen his position, and finally shake off the constant vulnerability of the minority game.
Oh, and there’s one other awkward little detail — he doesn’t have a seat in the House of Commons.
That’s not unheard of, but usually, a newly minted PM in this situation might run in a quick by-election to fix that. Carney can’t. A law banning by-elections within nine months of a fixed election date means he’s stuck leading from the bleachers until the general election sorts things out. Legally? No problem. Optically? Yikes.
Smart to try to fix that, ASAP
3. Seize the Momentum
Have you seen the polls? Yeah … so has he.
Carney — and the Liberals — have been on a big time high since taking the reins from Trudeau. The same pollsters who pronounced them DOA in January are now saying they’ve got a good shot at forming the next government. Some polls even have them within majority government striking distance.
The longer he waits, the more time the opposition has to organize and rally, so it might be better to strike while the iron is hot.
Do or Have It Done To You
With all signs pointing to tomorrow’s election call, Carney is set to make his move. The prorogation expires, the threat of a no-confidence vote looms large, and with opposition parties ready to pounce, he has little choice but to ask the GG to drop writ and face the voters.
In many ways, tomorrow isn’t just about controlling timing — it’s about controlling the narrative.
By calling the election now, Carney gets the chance to lock in his position and grab a mandate before his government gets tested by the opposition.
The stakes? High.
The timing? Risky.
But if he doesn't take action, the outcome might be shaped without him.
Looking for more about the outcome?
I shared updates and analysis all through #Elxn45.
Check out the archive for deep dives, explainers, and what it all means.
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Oddly, like Carney, he never sat in the House of Commons during his PM tenure.
Fun fact: Elections in Canada are always held on a Monday — and it’s not just for convenience. It’s because the law says it should be, giving voters plenty of time to prepare (and probably to complain about it being on a Monday). We all know Mondays have that “ugh” factor — but when it comes to elections, it's a fixed "ugh."
It was true of the winds that brought the Trudeau and the Liberals to a majority government in 2015, when ‘change’ was the issue at the ballot box after 9 years of Prime Minister Stephen Harper and his Conservative party’s multiple mandates; similarly, Harper ousted the Liberals to come to power in 2006, after 13 years (and two Prime Ministers!) of Liberal dominance.
In fact, this makes their government the second longest lasting minority government in Canadian history.
Most minority governments in Canada last less than two years.